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GBP Skids as Wage Data Prompts Reassessment of BoE Trajectory

FOREX
  • GBP trades poorly on the back of a softer-than-expected set of wage numbers, which have prompted markets to re-initiate easing bets for 2024. OIS markets have added close to 6bps of implied easing across this calendar year - making for full pricing of 3x25bps cuts by December. Resultingly, GBP/USD has been marked lower and is refuting the signals triggered by the recent bullish breakout. Pair is through the Monday and Friday lows, and now targets 1.2723 for direction.
  • Unwinding some of the recent price action, JPY trades poorly on an intraday basis but is still holding the bulk of the recent strength. An appearance from BoJ's Ueda overnight helping trigger a modest wave of JPY selling, after he stated that he sees weakness in consumption statistics around non-durable goods in Japan - throwing a small dose of coldwater on recent BoJ normalization speculation. Nonetheless, a March hike remains well priced in JPY markets.
  • NOK, SEK sit furtively firmer, but are generally trading with little conviction. Risk appetite seems key - and with European and US equity futures broadly rangebound early Tuesday, risk-proxy currencies should follow suit.
  • US CPI takes focus going forward, with markets expecting headline Y/Y inflation to hold at 3.1%, but for core to moderate by 0.2ppts to 3.7%. BoE's Mann and Bailey are set to make appearances later today, following from Mann's comments late yesterday, where she reiterated her view that inflation still remains too strong in the UK.
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