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GBP STIR Markets Little Changed To Start BoE Week, 62bp Of '24 Cuts Priced

STIR

SONIA futures are within 1bp of Friday’s settlement levels, with Bunds moving lower at typing, back to levels seen at Friday’s SONIA settlement.

  • BoE-dated OIS is little changed, first 25bp cut essentially fully priced through August, 62bp of cuts showing through year end.
  • A City AM poll of economists is a little more dovish, looking for the first cut in June (~11bp priced at present)
  • Speculation re: further pre-election UK fiscal easing intensified over the weekend.
  • Rightmove house price data recorded stronger M/M & Y/Y upticks this month.
  • Little to note on the local calendar today, with Wednesday’s UK CPI release and Thursday’s BoE decision providing the domestic highlights of the week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.203+1.4
May-245.171-1.8
Jun-245.082-10.7
Aug-244.944-24.5
Sep-244.834-35.5
Nov-244.683-50.6
Dec-244.567-62.2
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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