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Free AccessGBP/USD Extends Recovery, Holds Firm into UK Retail Sales Data
- GBP's fortunes seen to improve through Thursday's 0800GMT fix, the GBP demand allowing GBP/USD to recover off its early Europe low of $1.3670 to an eventual high of $1.3745 in NY before closing the day around $1.3734.
- GBP recovery also saw EUR/GBP ease back below its technically key 10-dma, holding below at the close which should again provide some added buoyancy to the pound 10-dma current GBp0.8584)
- GBP/USD marked a low of $1.3729 at the Asia open before rate continued its recovery phase, edging on to $1.3770in late Asia, opening Europe around $1.3757.
- UK Retail Sales at 0700GMT provides the initial focus, median ex-petrol 1.7%mm, -1.7%yy; Incl petrol 2.1%mm, -3.5%yy. MNI Reality Check suggests UK retail sales rose modestly in February, from depressed January levels, according to industry insiders, with clothing sales finally showing some signs of life. City forecasters expect a healthy monthly rise in volumes, consistent with reports from top retailers, which will leave sales around 3.5% below year-ago levels.
- BOE Saunders speaks at 1200GMT, Tenreyro 1645GMT.
- GBP/USD support $1.3729, $1.3700/1.3690 ahead of $1.3670/63. Resistance $1.3770, $1.3796(38.2% 1.4001-1.3670), $1.3836(50%), stronger $1.3866/75.
- MNI Techs: GBPUSD maintains a bearish tone and gains are considered corrective. Tuesday's move lower confirmed a breach of the bull channel base from the Nov 2, 2020 low. Furthermore, price has this week cleared the 50-day EMA and a former key support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low, triggering an important S/T reversal. The focus is on 1.3663 next, Feb 5 low. On the upside, the former channel base at 1.3844 today, provides an initial firm resistance.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.