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GBP/USD Plumbs Next Supports, Plenty of Risk Remains

GBP
  • USD strength pervades through the London close, with the USD Index inching to new daily highs post-CPI. The USD strength has led to the break of several support levels across GBP/USD, the latest of which being the early April multi-month lows of 1.2540.
  • A close at current or lower levels would be resolutely bearish for the pair, resuming the downleg posted off the mid-March highs. This exposes 1.2536 and 1.2519 as the next downside levels, acting as support just ahead of both Friday's industrial/manufacturing production releases in the UK, as well as the Bernanke review into BoE forecasting also set for release.
  • We interviewed former deputy governor Bean in March, who said "The BoE could enhance its policy communication by publishing alternative scenarios for inflation, [...] but there is more disagreement on rate paths."
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