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Headline CPI Seen Creeping Higher


Sterling Edging Lower Through European Open


Bull Mode Intact


Bearish Threat Still Present

  • The corrective pullback away from Friday's high of $1.4234 extended to $1.4112 in European morning trade Monday before rate recovered in NY to $1.4168 before settling around $1.4160 into the close.
  • The early move lower was seen influenced by EUR/GBP, as the cross was pushed to an extended high of Gbp0.8650, with the correction in NY aiding GBP's recovery, along with increased risk appetite.
  • Asia picked up the recovery baton, pushed GBP/USD up to $1.4185 and was holding firm into Europe, while EUR/GBP eased to Gbp0.8621.
  • UK borrowing data to be released at 0600GMT. Germany Ifo at 0800GMT a possible external influence along with Fed speak during the afternoon and US house sales.
  • BOE Tenreyro (dove) speaks at 1600GMT.
  • Support $1.4155/50 ahead of $1.4100/00. Resistance $1.4185/87(intraday high/61.8% $1.4234-1.4112) ahead of $1.4205(76.4%), a break to turn attention back on the $1.4234/37 area.
  • Month-end approaching and seen favouring USD demand, Wednesday for month-end USD value (US/UK holiday Monday) and Friday/Monday month-end fix interest.
  • MNI Techs: GBPUSD is trading closer to recent highs and remains bullish. Price action recently cleared a number of resistance levels, reinforcing a positive theme and sights are on 1.4237, Feb 24 high. A break would reinforce a bullish case and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started March 2020. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 1.4006, May 13 low where a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.