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GDP Stagnates in Q2, Weaker than Expectations

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY Q2 2022 FLASH GDP +0.0% Q/Q (FCST +0.1%); Q1 2022 +0.8%r Q/Q

GERMANY Q2 2022 FLASH GDP +1.4% Y/Y (FCST +1.7%); Q1 2022 +3.6%r Y/Y

  • The German economy stalled in the flash Q2 2022 GDP print, following a 0.6pp upwards revision of Q1 GDP to +0.8% q/q.
  • Compared to 2021, Q2 saw +1.4% y/y growth, weaker than +3.6% y/y in Q1 and 0.3pp below forecast.
  • Private and government consumption managed to avoid German GDP slipping into contractive territory, whilst the export industry saw a substantial slowdown.
  • The continued effects of the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, global inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine have generated substantial downwards growth pressure on the German economy and outlooks remain bleak.
  • The stark upwards revision of Q1 numbers was largely due to significant recalculations of GDP back to 2018.
  • This follows the hot inflation surprise of +8.5% y/y in yesterday's July flash and this morning's labour market data holding strong despite a large influx of Ukrainian nationals.
  • As inflationary pressures continue to be the key driver of record-low consumer confidence ECB will continue to stick to frontloading rhetoric despite the largest eurozone economy on the edge of contraction.

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