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GDP/Core PCE For Q4 In The Data Spotlight

US DATA
  • Analysts look for real GDP growth of 2% annualized in Q4, grouped between 1.5-2.5% with only one outlier lower.
  • The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow looks for a 2.38% increase, and is on a good run having correctly biased higher in the past two advance estimates.
  • Either outcome would mark a softening after the booming 4.9% seen in Q3, although it’s little payback considering the economy increased an average 2.2% in 1H23 and 2.6% in 2H22 (all Q/Q annualized).
  • The GDPNow breakdown points to changes in inventories dragging -0.5pps from Q4 GDP growth, a large swing having added a strong 1.3pp to Q3.
  • Consumption should be watched as always, especially after last week’s notable beat for retail sales (with its limited capturing of service spending): real consumption is estimated to have increased 2.5% annualized after 3.1%.
  • The Q4 core PCE release will give a clue as to tomorrow’s December print, although it’s an imperfect estimate for December specifically as there will likely be revisions to the monthly profile.
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