GDP Data Take Focus

Spot USD/PHP has crept higher in a delayed reaction to latest fluctuations in USD, after printing a three-month low & charting a hammer candlestick on Monday. Worth noting that it formed a death cross Monday, less than two weeks after a golden cross materialised. The rate last sits +0.023 at PHP47.890.

• A rally past May 5 high of PHP48.133 would give bulls some reprieve, while a retreat under May 10 low of PHP47.793 would please bears, opening up the 76.4% retracement of the YtD rally/Feb 16 low at PHP47.751/47.721.
• USD/PHP 1-month NDF last seen +0.060 at PHP48.040 after retesting Feb 2 cycle low of PHP47.84 yesterday. A break above May 5 high of PHP48.260 would bring the 100-DMA at PHP48.410 into view. Conversely, bears keep an eye on the aforementioned PHP47.840 level.
• Pres Duterte sought to separate Chinese vaccine supplies from tensions over a disputed part of South China Sea, as he noted that Manila's decision to import Sinovac jabs will not change the Philippines' stance on geopolitical matters. Elsewhere, Chief General Sobejana said that the Philippines is planning to convert a South China Sea island into a military hub.
• BSP reported that FDI inflow into the Philippines fell 2.2% Y/Y in Feb and printed at $608mn. Meanwhile, M3 money supply rose 8.3% Y/Y in Apr, while bank lending net of RRPs fell 4.5% Y/Y.
• Philippine Q1 GDP headlines the local docket today. Consensus is forecasting that the economy shrank 3.2% Y/Y after an 8.3% fall in the final quarter of 2020.
• Looking further afield, BSP are set to deliver their latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Yesterday evening, Gov Diokno said that the announcement has been brought forward by one day, after May 13 was declared a regular nationwide holiday in observance of Eid al-Fitr.