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SOUTH KOREA: GDP Disappoints Paving Way for February Rate Cut. 

SOUTH KOREA
EM BulletBulletSouth KoreaAPACEmerging Market News
  • Korea’s fourth quarter GDP YoY print of +1.2% was below expectations of +1.4% and a contraction from Q3 result of +1.5% delivering an annualized return for 2024 of 2.0%.
  • The original estimate for 2024 GDP expansion was +2.1%.
  • The month on month figure of +0.1% points to the general malaise in the Korean economy (as highlighted by today’s manufacturing survey release).
  • 4Q manufacturing MoM +0.1%, services +0.3%.
  • The BOK unexpectedly kept rates on hold at their recent meeting, however in the accompanying press release were very clear that they are in a rate cutting cycle.
  • The Korean bond market has priced in 15bps of cuts priced in on a 3 month time horizon and 49bps over the next year.
  • The BOK next meets on February 25. 
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  • Korea’s fourth quarter GDP YoY print of +1.2% was below expectations of +1.4% and a contraction from Q3 result of +1.5% delivering an annualized return for 2024 of 2.0%.
  • The original estimate for 2024 GDP expansion was +2.1%.
  • The month on month figure of +0.1% points to the general malaise in the Korean economy (as highlighted by today’s manufacturing survey release).
  • 4Q manufacturing MoM +0.1%, services +0.3%.
  • The BOK unexpectedly kept rates on hold at their recent meeting, however in the accompanying press release were very clear that they are in a rate cutting cycle.
  • The Korean bond market has priced in 15bps of cuts priced in on a 3 month time horizon and 49bps over the next year.
  • The BOK next meets on February 25.