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GDP due for release at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
MNI (London)

The first print of Q4 GDP will be released at 7:00GMT, alongside the monthly GDP data for December and its constituents.

  • Consensus looks for Q4 GDP to have grown by +1.1% q/q in the prelim Q4 estimate, remaining in line with the Q3 print, with the service sector as the key contributor. Compared to Q4 2020, consensus is expecting a softening to +6.4% y/y, down from +6.8% y/y. However, extremely weak consumer sentiment in December -- when the Omicron Covid variant swept through the UK -- introduces a degree of downside risk to forecasts, as retail and vehicle sales both plunged in December.
  • The monthly GDP print is expected to be -0.5%M/M by consensus.
  • Analysts are also anticipating a slump in manufacturing growth, dipping to +0.2% m/m from +1.1% m/m in November 2021.The key downwards drivers here remain persistent supply bottlenecks and the Omicron Covid outbreak.
  • The impact on the pound and later on SONIA futures / gilts is likely to be limited. A weak print can be dismissed as being due to Omicron concerns while inflation is driving the need to hike, not a strong growth picture.
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