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GDP Figures Could Be Key Data Point Before Rate Hikes

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia - focus today will be second quarter GDP figures. Particular attention should be paid to these data as referenced in the latest central bank minutes, "it would be prudent to wait for second-quarter GDP figures prior to making any decision to raise rates."
    • 1700BST/1200ET – Colombia Q2 GDP (Est. -0.8% Q/q, Prior 2.9%)
    • 1700BST/1200ET – Colombia Q2 GDP NSA (Est. 18.6% Y/y, Prior 1.1%)
    • 1700BST/1200ET – Colombia June Economic Activity NSA (Est. 14.7% Y/y, Prior 13.6%)
  • The increase is likely to be led by base and carryover effects, but will likely remain below its pre-pandemic level. Assuming there are no negative surprises, the five central bankers who voted for a hold in July may be swayed into the hiking camp, setting up policy rate lift-off in September.
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