GDP Indicator Clouded By Retail Sales Revisions

The Swedish flash SA Q4 GDP indicator came in at +0.1% Q/Q (vs +0.3% cons, 0.0% in Q3). In its November MPR, the Riksbank forecasted Q4 GDP at -0.4% Q/Q. On an annual basis, GDP was flat at 0.0% Y/Y (vs -0.4% cons, -1.2% prior), while the Riksbank forecasted a weaker -0.8% Y/Y.

• SEK initially strengthened on the release, but has since reversed course against the EUR. We note that the flash release is often revised, sometimes heavily, so should be taken with a grain of salt.
• December's monthly reading was weaker to end the quarter, at -0.3% M/M (vs a downwardly revised -0.2% prior) and -0.1% Y/Y (vs a -0.8pp downwardly revised +0.1% prior).
• There are few details given in the flash release, though Statistics Sweden note that stronger net exports offset weaker domestic components in the fourth quarter. This is consistent with the last few monthly GDP releases.
• The release also notes that the retail trade index was revised from April to November following the "correction of an error", resulting in a -0.1pp downward revision to both the October and November GDP-indicators.
• Alongside the GDP release, retail sales for December remained negative at -0.2% M/M (vs an upwardly revised -0.2% prior) and -2.2% Y/Y (vs a downwardly revised -2.8% prior). The press release notes that sales in consumables grew +1.1% M/M while durable sales fell -1.8% M/M. On a 3M/3M basis, sales rose +0.2%.