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GDP indicator only marginally disappoints Riksbank forecasts

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  • Today's soft retail sales numbers likely fed into a disappointing GDP indicator, which was -0.1%Q/Q for Q1 (consensus +0.2%Q/Q, prior +0.1%Q/Q). Only 1/7 of the analysts in the Bloomberg survey had not expected a positive print. On a monthly basis February was revised down from +0.1%M/M to -0.3%M/M with March also coming in at -0.3%M/M.
  • However, compared to the Riksbank's forecast of -0.02%Q/Q for GDP in their March MPR, today's -0.1%Q/Q print isn't a huge surprise, so it appears to be a bigger surprise to the market than it is to the Riksbank.
  • Swedish retail sales have disappointed in March, falling -0.4%M/M. On a 3m/3m seasonally and WDA basis, the +0.3% reading to the end of March was lower than +0.8%3m/3m to the end of February and the lowest since the 3 months to the end of November 2023. Also, note that previously there had appeared to be 5 consecutive monthly increases in the 3m/3m measure, but this is no longer the case due to previous downward revisions.
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  • Today's soft retail sales numbers likely fed into a disappointing GDP indicator, which was -0.1%Q/Q for Q1 (consensus +0.2%Q/Q, prior +0.1%Q/Q). Only 1/7 of the analysts in the Bloomberg survey had not expected a positive print. On a monthly basis February was revised down from +0.1%M/M to -0.3%M/M with March also coming in at -0.3%M/M.
  • However, compared to the Riksbank's forecast of -0.02%Q/Q for GDP in their March MPR, today's -0.1%Q/Q print isn't a huge surprise, so it appears to be a bigger surprise to the market than it is to the Riksbank.
  • Swedish retail sales have disappointed in March, falling -0.4%M/M. On a 3m/3m seasonally and WDA basis, the +0.3% reading to the end of March was lower than +0.8%3m/3m to the end of February and the lowest since the 3 months to the end of November 2023. Also, note that previously there had appeared to be 5 consecutive monthly increases in the 3m/3m measure, but this is no longer the case due to previous downward revisions.