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GDP Miss Provides Only Marginal Headwind For Zloty

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The zloty ticked lower after the release of weaker-than-expected flash Q2 GDP data out of Poland, with EUR/PLN ticking away from session lows (4.4561) as a result. The rate last deals at 4.4615, down 157 pips on the day, with the PLN still sitting close to the top of the EMEA pile, lagging only the RUB and HUF.

  • From a technical perspective, bears see Jul 31 low of 4.3986 as their key initial target. A break here would resume the medium-term downtrend. Bulls keep an eye on Jul 6 high of 4.5040.
  • POLGB yields sit lower across the curve, taking their cue from a modicum of strength in core FI space. Local FRAs have shown little to no reaction to Polish GDP data. US Tsy yields are slightly lower across the curve.
  • Poland's GDP contracted by 3.7% Q/Q, according to preliminary data for Q2, missing the -2.3% consensus forecast. The economy shrank by 0.5% Y/Y versus -0.3% expected. Weak growth data may support the dovish wing in the MPC.
  • The NBP will release July core CPI data at 13:00BST/14:00CEST. The data is unlikely to provide a surprise, with most sell-side desks compiling their forecasts based on the breakdown of final CPI figures published earlier this week.
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The zloty ticked lower after the release of weaker-than-expected flash Q2 GDP data out of Poland, with EUR/PLN ticking away from session lows (4.4561) as a result. The rate last deals at 4.4615, down 157 pips on the day, with the PLN still sitting close to the top of the EMEA pile, lagging only the RUB and HUF.

  • From a technical perspective, bears see Jul 31 low of 4.3986 as their key initial target. A break here would resume the medium-term downtrend. Bulls keep an eye on Jul 6 high of 4.5040.
  • POLGB yields sit lower across the curve, taking their cue from a modicum of strength in core FI space. Local FRAs have shown little to no reaction to Polish GDP data. US Tsy yields are slightly lower across the curve.
  • Poland's GDP contracted by 3.7% Q/Q, according to preliminary data for Q2, missing the -2.3% consensus forecast. The economy shrank by 0.5% Y/Y versus -0.3% expected. Weak growth data may support the dovish wing in the MPC.
  • The NBP will release July core CPI data at 13:00BST/14:00CEST. The data is unlikely to provide a surprise, with most sell-side desks compiling their forecasts based on the breakdown of final CPI figures published earlier this week.