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GDP Momentum Likely Faded In June

CANADA
  • Real GDP increased 0.3% M/M as expected in May and was revised a tenth higher to 0.1% M/M in April (initially 0.0).
  • It did however see a weak advance release for June at -0.2% M/M after the aforementioned weakness in wholesale and manufacturing trade, which if realized would be the softest monthly print since Jan’22. It was hindered by forest fires in Alberta shutting facilities and triggering a 6.6% decline in conventional oil and gas production
  • It leaves quarterly GDP growth on track for just 1.05% annualized vs the 1.5% the BoC forecast for the quarter just two weeks ago at its July MPR, coincidentally revising up from 1.0%. (Remember though there can be differences between the monthly and expenditure-based quarterly data).
  • The report has seen GoCs reverse earlier underperformance to Tsys, with yields climbing just 1bp since the data vs +3bps for Tsys, although USDCAD has seen limited impact and keeps to the day’s relatively narrow range for only a small increase on the day at ~1.323.

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