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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA DATA
- The point of quarterly expenditure vs monthly industry-based GDP measures is important as they have thrown up some surprise differences in recent quarters, most recently the monthly data pointing to -0.2% annualized for Q3 vs -1.1% for the quarterly data.
- To that end, Bloomberg consensus looks for 0.8% annualized in Q4. With the BoC estimating potential output growth centred around 2.1% (1.0-3.2%) over 2024-25, it would take a material upside surprise to have meaningful inflationary pressure whereas a downside surprise would see a faster widening in excess supply, currently deemed as “modest”.
- Consumer spending should have firmed but still look stagnant in per capita terms – although some have previously cautioned looking per capita owing to sizeable share of younger age groups – whilst net trade should have also been positive.
- Inventories should again be watched in case they drive any surprise. They accounted for a -0.2pp drag to non-annualized GDP growth of -0.3% back in Q3 but saw even larger swings in late 2022/early 2023. We expect large swings in either direction here to be faded.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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