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GDP Price Index Surprises Lower On Volatile Exports, Core PCE Inflation Inline

US DATA
  • The GDP price index was far softer than expected in Q4 at 1.5% (cons 2.2) after 3.3% in Q3.
  • This index has seen noise in recent quarters, swinging from 4.0% in Q1, 1.7% in Q2, 3.3% in Q3 and 1.5% in Q4. The latest volatility has been driven by export prices, with -3.9% in Q2, +4.0% in Q3 and -3.0% in Q4.
  • Elsewhere, headline PCE prices increased 1.7% after 2.6% whilst core PCE inflation was exactly as expected at 1.99% annualized (cons 2.0), near enough the same pace as the 2.04% in Q3.
  • It implies a print of 0.16% M/M or slightly higher for December core PCE in tomorrow’s release, on the heavy assumption that there aren’t any revisions to the prior monthly profile.
  • Indicatively, a 0.16% M/M print with no revisions would see the three-month rate slow from 2.2% to 1.5% annualized, and the six-month down a tenth to 1.8% annualized.

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