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Geopol Risk Premium Recedes, Fedspeak Focus On Powell Tomorrow

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have unwound Friday’s geopolitical risk-driven push lower, back only just fully pricing a first cut with the September meeting.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 6.5bp Jun, 15bp Jul, 26bp Sep and 44bp Dec.
  • Williams and Daly are on the docket today, both of whom have spoken since Wednesday’s surprise CPI strength. Greater focus will be on Chair Powell’s Washington appearance tomorrow and also Vice Chair Jefferson’s keynote address.
  • 0830ET – Williams (voter) on Bloomberg TV. He said Apr 11 that there is no need to adjust policy in the “very near term” and will assess his confidence to cut as more data is collected.
  • 2000ET – Daly (’24) speaks in a fireside chat at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (no text). She said Apr 12 that there is no urgency to cut interest rates and that there is a lot of work to do before being confident about price stability.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have unwound Friday’s geopolitical risk-driven push lower, back only just fully pricing a first cut with the September meeting.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 6.5bp Jun, 15bp Jul, 26bp Sep and 44bp Dec.
  • Williams and Daly are on the docket today, both of whom have spoken since Wednesday’s surprise CPI strength. Greater focus will be on Chair Powell’s Washington appearance tomorrow and also Vice Chair Jefferson’s keynote address.
  • 0830ET – Williams (voter) on Bloomberg TV. He said Apr 11 that there is no need to adjust policy in the “very near term” and will assess his confidence to cut as more data is collected.
  • 2000ET – Daly (’24) speaks in a fireside chat at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (no text). She said Apr 12 that there is no urgency to cut interest rates and that there is a lot of work to do before being confident about price stability.