Free Trial

Geopol Risk Premium Recedes, Fedspeak Focus On Powell Tomorrow

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have unwound Friday’s geopolitical risk-driven push lower, back only just fully pricing a first cut with the September meeting.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 6.5bp Jun, 15bp Jul, 26bp Sep and 44bp Dec.
  • Williams and Daly are on the docket today, both of whom have spoken since Wednesday’s surprise CPI strength. Greater focus will be on Chair Powell’s Washington appearance tomorrow and also Vice Chair Jefferson’s keynote address.
  • 0830ET – Williams (voter) on Bloomberg TV. He said Apr 11 that there is no need to adjust policy in the “very near term” and will assess his confidence to cut as more data is collected.
  • 2000ET – Daly (’24) speaks in a fireside chat at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (no text). She said Apr 12 that there is no urgency to cut interest rates and that there is a lot of work to do before being confident about price stability.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.