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Geopolitical Uncertainty Pushes HUF To All-Time Lows

HUNGARY
  • Last week, economic data showed that CPI inflation accelerated to 10.7% in May, (vs. 10.4%), up from 9.5% the previous month, mainly driven by the surge in food inflation.
  • Despite the elevated inflationary pressures and the HUF weakness (EURHUF flirting with the 400 level), the NBH decided to follow its forward guidance and kept its 1W depo rate unchanged at 6.75% after raising it by 30bps in the beginning of the month.
  • As the HUF remains driven by geopolitical uncertainty, the NBH decided to slow down the intervention via the 1W depo rate facility and raise the effective policy rate every month along with the ‘core’ policy rate.
  • The NBH will publish the minutes of its May meeting on June 15.
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