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Geopolitical Uncertainty, USD Strength Leave Equities Vulnerable (1/2)

EMERGING MARKETS
  • The deceleration in Chinese economic activity, strong momentum on the USD amid elevated uncertainty and more recently the deterioration in the Russia/Ukraine conflict have been weighing on EM equities in the past year.
  • EM equities are down over 11% since the start of the year, driven by the weakness in Asia (ex-Japan) and CEEMEA equities.
  • The chart below shows the performance of equity sectors since the start of the year.
  • Defensive sectors Telecom and Utilities stand among the best performing equity sectors this year, up 3.8% and 2%, respectively, and significantly outperforming the EM equity market.
  • In addition, the sharp increase LT bond yields have been supporting financial equities, up 2.2%.
    • We recently noted the divergence between EM banks, which have outperformed the equity market, and Europe/US banks, which have been underperforming the market despite the significant surge in LT yields.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI.

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