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Geopolitics Dominate Market Moves

CANADA
  • FI: GoC’s continue to show a relatively compact bull flattening (2s10s down to 13bps) compared to the larger twist flattening in Treasuries (2s10s down to just 2bps).
  • The mixed performance sees the short-end Can-US yield differential fall back into negative territory (-3bps) but the long-end widen further to one of the largest positives since mid-January (+8bps).
  • FX: USDCAD trades -0.2% at 1.2495, buoyed more recently by the bounce in oil from sub $100 WTI which has helped CAD claw back some ground compared to other majors.
  • From a technical point of view, the trend remains bearish and key support of 1.2454 (Jan 19) remains exposed, after which it could open a 1.23 handle and Nov-2021 lows.
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