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Geopolitics Weighs, Quarterly Refunding and ECI Offer Pre-FOMC Focus

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen some two-way trade overnight but are ultimately little changed on the day as yesterday's Israel strikes continue to have an impact on fixed income markets but with a partly offsetting factor from higher oil prices.
  • Late on 30 July, Israel carried out an air strike on a Beirut suburb, hitting a building containing senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Several hours later the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a raid in Tehran although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the killing.
  • TYU4 at 111-18 (unch) is within session ranges but earlier touched yesterday’s risk-off induced high of 111-21. Cumulative volumes are solid as they approach 350k.
  • The trend needle continues to point north, with resistance seen at 111-31 (Fibo projection of Apr-May price swings).
  • Cash yields sit 0.2-0.6bp lower on the day. 2s10s at -22.1bps is within yesterday's range.
  • Ahead, the Employment Cost Index is likely to be watched even more closely than normal with the pause in the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker limiting alternate wage measures, and it lands along with Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement for a flurry of activity at 0830ET.
  • Data: Weekly MBA data (0700ET), ADP employment Jul (0815ET), ECI Q2 (0830ET), MNI Chicago PMI Jul (0945ET), Pending home sales Jun (1000ET)
  • Fed: FOMC decision (1400ET), Powell press conference (1430ET).Preview here.
  • Treasury QRA (0830ET). Preview here.
  • Bills issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)
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