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Georgia Results Sink Tsys On Heavy Volumes

US TSYS SUMMARY

The curve has sharply bear steepened with the 10-Yr Tsy yield pushing above 1% for the first time since March, with more fiscal stimulus eyed after apparent Democratic wins in both Georgia Senate runoffs.

  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) down 18/32 at 137-9 (L: 137-06 / H: 137-29.5). One-way traffic lower on huge volumes (~800k traded).
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1.4bps at 0.1349%, 5-Yr is up 4.3bps at 0.4194%, 10-Yr is up 6.9bps at 1.0237%, and 30-Yr is up 8bps at 1.7876%.
  • Though there have been no concessions yet, bookmakers imply 99+% probability of Democrats winning both GA seats and taking control of the Senate. Alongside Tsys selling off, tech stocks and the USD are weaker (as had been the predicted reaction in a Dem double-win scenario).
  • House meets at 1200ET, Senate at 1230ET prior to 1300ET joint session of Congress to count presidential electoral votes, with objections from some Republican Senators eyed.
  • Apart from politics, a busy data slate: Dec ADP employment (0815ET), final Svcs PMI (0945ET), Nov Factory Orders/final Durable Goods (1000ET) lie ahead.
  • We also get the Dec FOMC minutes at 1400ET. We'll put out a brief preview later.
  • In supply, $55B of 105-/154-day bills at 1130ET

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