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German August Tracks 8% Weekly Increase

POWER

The German August power base-load contract is tracking a weekly net increase of above 8%, supported by gains in EU carbon allowances and gas prices, while France announced this week to potentially curb exports at its eastern borders in August until October. EdF said on Friday it expects French nuclear output at the upper end of the forecast range.

    • France Base Power AUG 24 up 0.1% at 43.99 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 1.1% at 75.33 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 0.9% at 67.4 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas AUG 24 up 2% at 32.425 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month finds early strength on Friday, returning back towards Thursday highs but remains well down from early July levels. Overall fundamentals remain stable with demand weak and stock levels robust.
  • EU ETS Dec 24 is trading higher today, tracking a weekly net increase of just below 2%, supported by higher gas prices and forecasts for low renewables output in NW Europe this week. The next German EUA CAP 3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • French nuclear availability has risen to 76% as of Friday morning, up from 73% in the previous day, RTE data showed.
  • The planned maintenance at the 1.31GW Belleville 2 reactor is scheduled to end five days earlier on 30 July.
  • Due to the high temperature forecasts on Garonne river, production restrictions are likely to affect Golfech nuclear output from July 31, 2024.
  • EdF said on Friday is expects French nuclear output at the upper end of the 315-345TWh range this year, excluding the new Flamanville nuclear reactor which start up is imminent.
  • In France, wind output is forecast to decline to 1.53GW during base load on Saturday, down from 1.65GW forecast for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to decline to 3.59GW during base load on Saturday, up from 4.08GW forecast for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French power demand is forecast at a peak of 51GW on Friday and of 47.09GW on Saturday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest 6-9 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal until 29 July, after which they will rise above normal until the end of the forecast period.
  • French net power exports are scheduled 2.76GW to Germany, up from 1.46GW the previous day. Flows to Belgium will rise to 2.74GW, from 1.64GW the day before.
  • In Germany, combined onshore and offshore wind is forecast to fall to 1.12GW during base load on Saturday, down from 4.69GW forecast for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge higher on Saturday to 9.91GW during base load, up from 8.99GW forecast for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German power demand is forecast at a maximum of 61.67GW on Friday and of 35.37GW on Saturday, Entso-E data showed.

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