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POWER: German Baseload, Peakload Prices Soar to Around 2-Year High

POWER
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German baseload and peak load prices soared on the day amid a continued drop of German wind power generation – at just a 3% load factor – and firm domestic power demand, with baseload prices reaching their highest since 15 Dec 2022 (disregarding the IT glitch in June) and peak load costs settling at their highest since 30 August 2022.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €395.34/MWh from €266.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €173.13/MWh from €164.10/MWh on the previous day.
  • France widened its discount to €222.21/MWh from €102.44/MWh in the previous session.
  • The German peak load settled at €605.93/MWh from €383.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French peak load cleared at €206.72/MWh from €199.33/MWh on the previous day.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 1.70GW, or a 3% load factor during base load on Thursday from 2.86GW, or a 4% load factor forecasts for Wednesday. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then rebound slightly to 3.23GW the next day – which could drop power prices on the day but at just a 5% load factor, prices could still be elevated.
  • Prices also rose amid a short-lived Dunkelflaute in Germany
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to remain firm at 61.11GW on Thursday from 61.72GW forecasted for Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to drop to 3.4C on Thursday from 3.6C on Wednesday and below the seasonal average of 3.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop on 13 Dec to be at 59.22GW.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to also decrease on the day to 2.81GW, or a 14% load factor during base load tomorrow from 4.12GW, or a 21% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 1.66GW on 13 Dec – which could continue to lift prices.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise sharply to 68.44GW on Thursday, up from 66.83GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to decline to 3C on Thursday from 5.1C on Wednesday and below the seasonal average of 4.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise to 69.10GW on 13 Dec – likely supporting power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 85% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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German baseload and peak load prices soared on the day amid a continued drop of German wind power generation – at just a 3% load factor – and firm domestic power demand, with baseload prices reaching their highest since 15 Dec 2022 (disregarding the IT glitch in June) and peak load costs settling at their highest since 30 August 2022.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €395.34/MWh from €266.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €173.13/MWh from €164.10/MWh on the previous day.
  • France widened its discount to €222.21/MWh from €102.44/MWh in the previous session.
  • The German peak load settled at €605.93/MWh from €383.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French peak load cleared at €206.72/MWh from €199.33/MWh on the previous day.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 1.70GW, or a 3% load factor during base load on Thursday from 2.86GW, or a 4% load factor forecasts for Wednesday. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then rebound slightly to 3.23GW the next day – which could drop power prices on the day but at just a 5% load factor, prices could still be elevated.
  • Prices also rose amid a short-lived Dunkelflaute in Germany
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to remain firm at 61.11GW on Thursday from 61.72GW forecasted for Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to drop to 3.4C on Thursday from 3.6C on Wednesday and below the seasonal average of 3.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop on 13 Dec to be at 59.22GW.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to also decrease on the day to 2.81GW, or a 14% load factor during base load tomorrow from 4.12GW, or a 21% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 1.66GW on 13 Dec – which could continue to lift prices.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise sharply to 68.44GW on Thursday, up from 66.83GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to decline to 3C on Thursday from 5.1C on Wednesday and below the seasonal average of 4.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise to 69.10GW on 13 Dec – likely supporting power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 85% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.