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EUROPEAN INFLATION: German Breadth Continues to Stall in December

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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  • MNI’s inflation breadth tracker (see chart below) shows disinflation continuing to stall in the low-inflation categories in December, with the percentage of ECOICOP (European classification of individual consumption according to purpose, a standardized category split) items printing at or below 2% falling to 48.3% from 50.2% in November. In the high-inflation categories, disinflation also stalled, with the percentage of categories, above 6% rising to 12.1% from 10.7% in November.
  • Looking ahead to the January inflation round, energy base effects that pushed up the inflation rate since September will have subsided in January. However, the annual reset of a wider set of services categories, the category reweighting, as well as a set of idiosyncratic factors coming into play have the potential of introducing additional volatility in the January release.
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  • MNI’s inflation breadth tracker (see chart below) shows disinflation continuing to stall in the low-inflation categories in December, with the percentage of ECOICOP (European classification of individual consumption according to purpose, a standardized category split) items printing at or below 2% falling to 48.3% from 50.2% in November. In the high-inflation categories, disinflation also stalled, with the percentage of categories, above 6% rising to 12.1% from 10.7% in November.
  • Looking ahead to the January inflation round, energy base effects that pushed up the inflation rate since September will have subsided in January. However, the annual reset of a wider set of services categories, the category reweighting, as well as a set of idiosyncratic factors coming into play have the potential of introducing additional volatility in the January release.
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