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POWER: German DA Flips to Discount to France, May Return to Premium for 24 Jan

POWER
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The German day-ahead market flipped to a discount compared to the French equivalent, following higher load factors of wind generation and significantly lower power consumption compared to France for the upcoming day. Looking ahead, French and German wind is expected at similar load factors on 24 January, combined with strong French nuclear availability, Germany may return to a premium over France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €103.94/MWh from €161.45/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €110.33/MWh from €146.95/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €6.39/MWh discount from a €14.50/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 29.1GW, or 45% during base load on Thursday, up from 12.86GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German wind output is then forecasts to climb further to 35.9GW, or 56% load factor on 24 January – likely dropping costs lower on the day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to increase to 63.02GW on Thursday, up from 62.68GW on Wednesday despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 3.3C on Thursday from 2.5C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 2.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 61.83GW on 24 January.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 7.6GW, or a 38% during base load on Thursday, up from 4.62GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be at 11.22GW or a 56% load factor on 24 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 70.76GW on Thursday from 72.59GW on Wednesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 4.6C on Thursday from 4.2C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 4.2C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Deman will then drop to around 68.57GW on 24 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 25 January.
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The German day-ahead market flipped to a discount compared to the French equivalent, following higher load factors of wind generation and significantly lower power consumption compared to France for the upcoming day. Looking ahead, French and German wind is expected at similar load factors on 24 January, combined with strong French nuclear availability, Germany may return to a premium over France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €103.94/MWh from €161.45/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €110.33/MWh from €146.95/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €6.39/MWh discount from a €14.50/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 29.1GW, or 45% during base load on Thursday, up from 12.86GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German wind output is then forecasts to climb further to 35.9GW, or 56% load factor on 24 January – likely dropping costs lower on the day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to increase to 63.02GW on Thursday, up from 62.68GW on Wednesday despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 3.3C on Thursday from 2.5C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 2.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 61.83GW on 24 January.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 7.6GW, or a 38% during base load on Thursday, up from 4.62GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be at 11.22GW or a 56% load factor on 24 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 70.76GW on Thursday from 72.59GW on Wednesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 4.6C on Thursday from 4.2C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 4.2C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Deman will then drop to around 68.57GW on 24 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 25 January.