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POWER: German DA Maintains Premium to France, Could Sustain for 17 Jan Delivery

POWER
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German day-ahead power prices remained higher than those in France, as wind generation in Germany is expected to continue declining from the previous session. However, weaker demand helped keep delivery costs in check. In contrast, higher wind output and lower electricity consumption in France kept spot prices subdued. This trend may persist for 17 January, as German wind generation is forecast to fall further.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €148.10/MWh from €222.18/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €139.88/MWh from €160.57/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €8.22/MWh premium from a €61.61/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Despite the decline, hourly prices in Germany were still seen as high as €199.65/MWh for delivery on the hour of 08-09.
  • This compares to French prices at €199.94/MWh for the same hour.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge lower to 7.86GW during base load on Thursday, down from 7.4GW on Wednesday. Wind will then be at 5.18GW the next day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 62.07GW on Thursday, down from 63.21GW on Wednesday despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to decline to 3.6C on Thursday, down from 4.3C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 2.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then drop on Friday at 60.17GW.
  • Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 2.96GW during base load on Thursday, up from 2.28GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 1.24GW or 6% load factor the next day.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 74.69GW on Thursday, down from 75.48GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise to 5.6C on Thursday, up from 4.5C on Wednesday but below the seasonal average of 6.4C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 74.83GW on 17 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France increased to 92% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 88% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 18 January, extended by one day with output lowered from 180MW previously.
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German day-ahead power prices remained higher than those in France, as wind generation in Germany is expected to continue declining from the previous session. However, weaker demand helped keep delivery costs in check. In contrast, higher wind output and lower electricity consumption in France kept spot prices subdued. This trend may persist for 17 January, as German wind generation is forecast to fall further.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €148.10/MWh from €222.18/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €139.88/MWh from €160.57/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €8.22/MWh premium from a €61.61/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Despite the decline, hourly prices in Germany were still seen as high as €199.65/MWh for delivery on the hour of 08-09.
  • This compares to French prices at €199.94/MWh for the same hour.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge lower to 7.86GW during base load on Thursday, down from 7.4GW on Wednesday. Wind will then be at 5.18GW the next day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 62.07GW on Thursday, down from 63.21GW on Wednesday despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to decline to 3.6C on Thursday, down from 4.3C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 2.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then drop on Friday at 60.17GW.
  • Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 2.96GW during base load on Thursday, up from 2.28GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 1.24GW or 6% load factor the next day.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 74.69GW on Thursday, down from 75.48GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise to 5.6C on Thursday, up from 4.5C on Wednesday but below the seasonal average of 6.4C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 74.83GW on 17 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France increased to 92% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 88% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 18 January, extended by one day with output lowered from 180MW previously.