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GERMAN DATA: Factory orders skewed by transportation, but underlying data soft

GERMAN DATA
Data BulletEurozoneGermanyCEEMEABulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

German factory orders look really soft in August, but Destatis notes that "One of the reasons for the negative development of new orders in August 2024 were the very large orders for other transport equipment (manufacture of aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles) placed in the previous month. When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders in August 2024 were only 3.4% lower than in July 2024. A three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders excluding large-scale orders were 0.7% higher in the period from June 2024 to August 2024 than in the three months before."

  • Note that there was also an upward revision from +2.9%M/M to +3.9%M/M for July.
  • So the August number isn't quite as bad as it appears at first sight. But without those large transportation orders the underlying series still appears very weak. (And to some extent last month's higher transportation orders should have been baked into the consensus - so even allowing for the revision, this number still disappoints).
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German factory orders look really soft in August, but Destatis notes that "One of the reasons for the negative development of new orders in August 2024 were the very large orders for other transport equipment (manufacture of aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles) placed in the previous month. When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders in August 2024 were only 3.4% lower than in July 2024. A three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders excluding large-scale orders were 0.7% higher in the period from June 2024 to August 2024 than in the three months before."

  • Note that there was also an upward revision from +2.9%M/M to +3.9%M/M for July.
  • So the August number isn't quite as bad as it appears at first sight. But without those large transportation orders the underlying series still appears very weak. (And to some extent last month's higher transportation orders should have been baked into the consensus - so even allowing for the revision, this number still disappoints).