GERMAN DATA: GDP Downwardly Revised, Picture Remains Weak

Germany's final Q3-24 GDP growth was downwardly revised by 0.1pp to +0.1% (-0.3% prior unrevised). Underlying drivers were released, showing, as projected in the flash, both government and private consumption expenditure behind the push from overall domestic demand. Investment moved lower again. The bigger picture remains that the German economy is stalling.

• Private consumption +0.3% Q/Q vs +0.5% cons, -0.2% prior: Bundesbank was fairly uncertain that there would be much of an upside contribution in their November monthly report despite the flash release pointing to this.
• Government spending +0.4% Q/Q vs 0.4% cons, +1.0% prior: A reform of the constitutional debt brake (which currently limits cycle-adjusted net issuance to 0.35% of GDP) during the next legislative period starting after the federal vote next February would put structural upside pressure here mid-term.
• Capital investment excl. inventories -0.1% Q/Q vs -0.5% cons, -2.2% prior: A weak print despite being a bit better than consensus looked for. This is the most worryingly part of the expenditure split in recent quarters.
• Exports -1.9% Q/Q vs -0.2% prior (no cons). This shows a continued absence of robust demand for German goods. Looking forward, there also appears to be little sign of an imminent rebound, as sentiment and Bundesbank commentary suggests.