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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
The German GfK consumer climate increased by 2.7 to -18.3 in November from an upward revised -21.0, outstripping expectations of -20.5 and reaching its highest level since April 2022.
- "Both income expectations and the willingness to buy show an improvement for the second time in a row and the willingness to save falls slightly."
- Real income gains since the beginning of the year (3.8% Y/Y Q1, 3.1% Q2) have fostered the narrative that domestic demand in Germany should pick up at some point - that has not really materialized to date, however (consumer expenditure -0.2% Q/Q Q2 after +0.3% Q1). One driver here could that real wages are still around 3% below comparable 2019 levels.
- Being forward looking, we see little signal from the climate index for Wednesday's Q3 flash GDP release (MNI sellside consensus -0.3% Y/Y, downwardly revised by 0.2pp during the last month). However, for domestic demand, improvements in the consumer climate should be interpreted as a good sign.
- That's supported by strong wage expectations for Q3 ('Bundesbank Sees 9% Q3 Negotiated Wage Growth in Oct Monthly Report' - MNI, Oct 24). Retail sales strength at the end of summer supports the narrative, also.
- The GfK consumer climate indicator is "based on around 2,000 consumer interviews per month conducted on behalf of the European Commission".
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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