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GERMAN DATA: Q2 GDP Methodology Reinforces Weak Retail Sales Signal

GERMAN DATA

The suspension of retail sales releases - which is due to end soon ('Destatis Resumes Retail Sales And Services Data Releases', August 23) poses the question how did Destatis calculate the Q2'24 GDP figures published yesterday?

  • Destatis confirms that they had no access to the main series of retail sales / services activity data for most of Q2. Instead, they've used a secondary source (internal "administration" data), which they report matches up quite well with the official data series across most categories.
  • Nevertheless, that yields two conclusions:
    • Revision risks are likely to be higher than usual. The unpublished "administration" data is unlikely to perfectly correlate with the official retail sales data - and there are likely to be some quarters where the estimates are more accurate than others.
    • Consumer spending was weak (-0.2% Q/Q vs 0.0% cons, +0.3% prior), while gross value added for most services sectors was rather strong. All else equal, this affirms our view that retail sales over the summer were likely on the weaker side (after 'July German Tax Revenues Signal Weak Retail Sales', August 26). May retail sales are scheduled to be published on Friday, with consensus standing at +0.1% M/M.
  • The official data series will be incorporated for the next GDP release. Destatis aims to return to its normal retail sales publication schedule by September at the latest.
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