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GERMAN DATA: Retail Sales Decline in October; Non-Food Weaker

GERMAN DATA
Data BulletEurozoneGermanyCEEMEABulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

German October retail sales came in at -1.5% M/M (real, seasonally-adjusted) and +1.0% Y/Y. That follows September's +1.6% M//M (after a 0.4pp upward revision) - and means the previous uptrend in place for three months at least temporarily came to a halt. Taking into account consumer sentiment declined again recently, erasing its gains of the last 6 months in the advance December print, the narrative of a consumer-driven recovery in Germany is taking a bit of a hit.

  • Looking at the individual categories, October's decrease appears centred in the non-food categories. However the Y/Y number here has been impacted by base effects and the October index value is actually higher than August after a surprisingly high September non-food print (leading to a low -4.0%M/M print). For details see table, note that the split is not exhaustive.
  • Food sales meanwhile remained largely unchanged on a sequential comparison in October, and exhibited less of a clear trend recently.
  • On a 3M/3M comparison, the trend needle still points upwards, at +2.0% in October vs +1.4% in September.
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German October retail sales came in at -1.5% M/M (real, seasonally-adjusted) and +1.0% Y/Y. That follows September's +1.6% M//M (after a 0.4pp upward revision) - and means the previous uptrend in place for three months at least temporarily came to a halt. Taking into account consumer sentiment declined again recently, erasing its gains of the last 6 months in the advance December print, the narrative of a consumer-driven recovery in Germany is taking a bit of a hit.

  • Looking at the individual categories, October's decrease appears centred in the non-food categories. However the Y/Y number here has been impacted by base effects and the October index value is actually higher than August after a surprisingly high September non-food print (leading to a low -4.0%M/M print). For details see table, note that the split is not exhaustive.
  • Food sales meanwhile remained largely unchanged on a sequential comparison in October, and exhibited less of a clear trend recently.
  • On a 3M/3M comparison, the trend needle still points upwards, at +2.0% in October vs +1.4% in September.