German Diesel Demand Rose in October Amid Maintenance, Israel Conflict

German diesel import demand has risen this month due to refinery outages, while the conflict in the Middle East led to a recent peak in traded heating oil spot volumes according to Argusmedia.

• There has been a rise in northern German diesel imports that are send to the south via rail due to the production outage at the 207kbpd Bayernoil refinery since 6 October due to a fire, traders told Argusmedia. Both Miro's 299kbpd Karlsruhe and BP's 257kbpd Gelsenkirchen refineries are in part being supplied with product by barge due to maintenance work.
• There are also more enquiries for gasoil imports into Switzerland and purchases from traders in Germany ahead of the heating season. This comes at a time when Rhine water levels continue to be very low and barge loadings are restricted to less than 40% of capacity.
• Traded heating oil volumes in Germany rose in the first two days of last week to the highest since July 2022, with the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas leading to a price rise. But reported volumes have been falling since 11 October, as heating oil prices kept rising and it is likely consumers will not need as much additional stocks for the upcoming winter.
• According to data from Argus MDX, private heating oil stock levels increased slightly year on year and are around 60% of capacity.
• Some traders expect further increases in demand next month, however, it is unclear from where Germany can source the required amounts given the ban on Russian oil products.