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POWER: German Fossil Fuel Output On Track to Rise in February

POWER
CEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsGermanyBulletPower BulletsCommodities

German fossil-fuel generation is on track to rise above last month’s and February 2024 levels, supported by higher power demand and lower onshore wind generation. Forecasts for warmer, windier weather for the end of this month are expected to weigh on fossil-fuel power generation 

  • Gas-fired power generation has averaged 12.31GW so far this month, tracking an increase of almost 16% compared with all of January. Levels so far this month are also well below February 2024 levels of 7.6GW.
  • Hard-coal power generation has averaged 6.96GWGW on 1-16 February, tracking an increase of around 43% compared with all of January. German coal-fired power generation averaged 3.75GW in February 2024.
  • Lignite generation is also tracking a month-on-month increase of more than 15% to average 10.6GW so far this month. Lignite output averaged 8.64GW in February last year.
  • The increase is largely due to a decline in onshore wind output and higher power demand this month, with German onshore wind output at 9.98GW so far this month, compared with 17.44GW in January. Onshore wind generation averaged 20.03GW in February 2024.
  • Offshore wind output so far this month was broadly in line with the January average of 3.32GW.
  • German power demand averaged 59.54GW so far this month, up from 58.76GW for all of January and from 57.41GW in February 2024.
  • Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF month-ahead weather forecast suggests mean temperature in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise above normal from later this week and to remain above normal through the forecast period – limiting demand for heating.
  • German wind output is also set to rebound later this week and early next week. Output is forecast between 8.76GW and 32.98GW during base-load hours on 18-24 February according to SpotRenewables.
  • Margins for a high-efficiency German gas plants for March remained out of this money so far this month, however, margins have deteriorated through this month with clean spark spreads currently at around -17.2€/MWh, compared with this month’s average of -15.3€/MWh.
    • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 4.8% at 94.88 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 78.56 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2.2% at 49.57 EUR/MWh
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German fossil-fuel generation is on track to rise above last month’s and February 2024 levels, supported by higher power demand and lower onshore wind generation. Forecasts for warmer, windier weather for the end of this month are expected to weigh on fossil-fuel power generation 

  • Gas-fired power generation has averaged 12.31GW so far this month, tracking an increase of almost 16% compared with all of January. Levels so far this month are also well below February 2024 levels of 7.6GW.
  • Hard-coal power generation has averaged 6.96GWGW on 1-16 February, tracking an increase of around 43% compared with all of January. German coal-fired power generation averaged 3.75GW in February 2024.
  • Lignite generation is also tracking a month-on-month increase of more than 15% to average 10.6GW so far this month. Lignite output averaged 8.64GW in February last year.
  • The increase is largely due to a decline in onshore wind output and higher power demand this month, with German onshore wind output at 9.98GW so far this month, compared with 17.44GW in January. Onshore wind generation averaged 20.03GW in February 2024.
  • Offshore wind output so far this month was broadly in line with the January average of 3.32GW.
  • German power demand averaged 59.54GW so far this month, up from 58.76GW for all of January and from 57.41GW in February 2024.
  • Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF month-ahead weather forecast suggests mean temperature in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise above normal from later this week and to remain above normal through the forecast period – limiting demand for heating.
  • German wind output is also set to rebound later this week and early next week. Output is forecast between 8.76GW and 32.98GW during base-load hours on 18-24 February according to SpotRenewables.
  • Margins for a high-efficiency German gas plants for March remained out of this money so far this month, however, margins have deteriorated through this month with clean spark spreads currently at around -17.2€/MWh, compared with this month’s average of -15.3€/MWh.
    • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 4.8% at 94.88 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 78.56 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2.2% at 49.57 EUR/MWh