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German-France Peak Load Premium Spread Narrows on High Renewables

POWER

German-French peak load day-ahead prices diverged on the day, with peak prices in Germany falling amid strong wind and solar generation forecast, while prices in France rose as its smaller renewable capacity failed to keep a lid on price increases. But this trend could change in the next session as forecasts point to a sharp fall in German wind.

  • The German peak day ahead moved down to €75.97/MWh from €79.77/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French peak day ahead moved up to €25.61/MWh from €12.23/MWh in the previous session. No prices were seen at €0.00/MWh or below for any peak hours.
  • This is slightly different from yesterday when French peak load prices traded at €0.00/MWh for delivery hours between 13-16.
  • This narrowed the German-French peak load spread to €50.36/MWh from €67.54/MWh.
  • German wind generation is anticipated at about 15.7GW on 29 May, compared to France's 6.92GW on the same day, according to the Bloomberg model.
  • In contrast, German PV is expected at 9.73GW on 29 May, with France anticipated at just 2.5GW on the same day.
  • On 30 May, German wind is forecast at just 3.22GW, although solar is seen rising to 11.01GW. A similar trend is seen in France although at a slower rate.
  • But power demand in Germany is expected to fall to 43.43GW on 30 May from 52.71GW anticipated on 29 May, while demand in France is expected to remain firm over 29-30 May at ~43GW, according to Bloomberg model.
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