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POWER: German, French DA Rise, Germany Could Maintain Discount for 6 Jan

POWER
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German and French day-ahead prices rose sharply as low wind offset reduced consumption despite cooler weather. However, Germany remained at a discount to France as demand is forecast to be 17GW lower than the latter. The discount may persist for 6 Jan delivery, with similar wind forecasts in both regions but around 10GW lower German demand.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €120.79/MWh from €89.94/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €121.74/MWh from €115.69/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €0.95/MWh discount from a €25.75/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast at 12.13GW, or a 19% load factor on Friday from 32.38GW, or a 50% load factor forecasted for Friday, according to SpotRenewables. However, with lower weekend demand prices could still be weighed down.
  • Wind is then expected to be at 41.03GW on 6 January (Mon) or 63% load factor– which could cap gains from rising demand from the weekend.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to drop to 48.04GW on Saturday from 53.07GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Duesseldorf dropping to around 0.8C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise from the weekend to be at 55.25GW on 6 January.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 4.36GW, or a 22% load factor on Saturday from 2.39GW, or 12% load factor forecasted for Friday, according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up on 6 January (Mon) to be at a 64% load factor, or 12.77GW.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to edge down to 65.66GW on Saturday from 66.17GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecasts to drop to -0.6C on Saturday from 0.1C on Friday and well below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 64.35GW on 6 January – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France rose to 85% of capacity as of Friday morning, up from 84% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.62GW Flamanville 3 outage has been extended by four days to 9 January.
  • But the 1.49GW Civaux 1 nuke is still expected to return on 5 January.
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German and French day-ahead prices rose sharply as low wind offset reduced consumption despite cooler weather. However, Germany remained at a discount to France as demand is forecast to be 17GW lower than the latter. The discount may persist for 6 Jan delivery, with similar wind forecasts in both regions but around 10GW lower German demand.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €120.79/MWh from €89.94/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €121.74/MWh from €115.69/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €0.95/MWh discount from a €25.75/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast at 12.13GW, or a 19% load factor on Friday from 32.38GW, or a 50% load factor forecasted for Friday, according to SpotRenewables. However, with lower weekend demand prices could still be weighed down.
  • Wind is then expected to be at 41.03GW on 6 January (Mon) or 63% load factor– which could cap gains from rising demand from the weekend.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to drop to 48.04GW on Saturday from 53.07GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Duesseldorf dropping to around 0.8C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise from the weekend to be at 55.25GW on 6 January.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 4.36GW, or a 22% load factor on Saturday from 2.39GW, or 12% load factor forecasted for Friday, according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up on 6 January (Mon) to be at a 64% load factor, or 12.77GW.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to edge down to 65.66GW on Saturday from 66.17GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecasts to drop to -0.6C on Saturday from 0.1C on Friday and well below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 64.35GW on 6 January – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France rose to 85% of capacity as of Friday morning, up from 84% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.62GW Flamanville 3 outage has been extended by four days to 9 January.
  • But the 1.49GW Civaux 1 nuke is still expected to return on 5 January.