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POWER: German, French DA Rises, DE May Settle at Discount for 30 Dec Delivery

POWER
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Germany and France's day-ahead power prices remained elevated from the previous session, driven by expected lower wind generation, which offset a decline in power consumption due to reduced industrial demand. However, looking ahead, German power prices may settle at a discount for delivery on 30 December (Mon), as wind generation is expected to see higher load factors and consumption is projected to be lower compared to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €122.64/MWh from €121.71/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €120.32/MWh from €119.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €2.32/MWh discount from a €2.17/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast at just 2.13GW, or a 3% load factor on Saturday from 1.25GW, or a 2% load factor forecasted for Friday, according to SpotRenewables. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 40% load factor on 30 December (Mon) – which limit gains from rising demand.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 39.48GW on Saturday from 45.25GW on Friday amid lower industrial consumption and despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to drop on Saturday to 1.03C compared with 3.10C on Friday – with temperatures below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise from the weekend on 30 Dec to be at 48.50GW – which could support delivery costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to fall to 0.823GW on Saturday from 1.09GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables. Wind is then expected at just an 8% load factor on 30 Dec – which may place Franch at a premium to Germany amid much lower wind.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 60.35GW on Saturday from 61.08GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to 0.7C on Saturday from 2.18C from Friday and below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise to 62.36GW on 30 Dec – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices and much higher than demand in Germany.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 84% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.3GW Cattenom 4 is still anticipated to return to the grid on 31 December, with the 910MW Blayais 3 back online on 27 December.
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Germany and France's day-ahead power prices remained elevated from the previous session, driven by expected lower wind generation, which offset a decline in power consumption due to reduced industrial demand. However, looking ahead, German power prices may settle at a discount for delivery on 30 December (Mon), as wind generation is expected to see higher load factors and consumption is projected to be lower compared to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €122.64/MWh from €121.71/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €120.32/MWh from €119.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €2.32/MWh discount from a €2.17/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast at just 2.13GW, or a 3% load factor on Saturday from 1.25GW, or a 2% load factor forecasted for Friday, according to SpotRenewables. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 40% load factor on 30 December (Mon) – which limit gains from rising demand.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 39.48GW on Saturday from 45.25GW on Friday amid lower industrial consumption and despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to drop on Saturday to 1.03C compared with 3.10C on Friday – with temperatures below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise from the weekend on 30 Dec to be at 48.50GW – which could support delivery costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to fall to 0.823GW on Saturday from 1.09GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables. Wind is then expected at just an 8% load factor on 30 Dec – which may place Franch at a premium to Germany amid much lower wind.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 60.35GW on Saturday from 61.08GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to 0.7C on Saturday from 2.18C from Friday and below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise to 62.36GW on 30 Dec – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices and much higher than demand in Germany.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 84% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.3GW Cattenom 4 is still anticipated to return to the grid on 31 December, with the 910MW Blayais 3 back online on 27 December.