German, French Day-Ahead Climb to Highest This Week

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts continued their upward trend that began on 28 July to climb to a fresh weekly high as forecasts for low wind have sustained domestic power prices in both regions. Despite this, France could continue to be at a discount to Germany for the remainder of the week amid higher load factors of wind compared to the latter.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €94.87/MWh from €79.40/MWh on the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €79.40/MWh from €65.56/MWh on the previous day.
• Hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €138.07/MWh for hour 20-21, slightly up from €136.15/MWh for the same hour in the previous session.
• In comparison, hourly prices in France were between €47.26/MWh and €108.95/MWh.
• German wind is only expected at 2.85GW, or a 4% load factor, on 1 August and will fall the next day to a 3% load factor – likely keeping upward pressure on delivery costs. But the price could fall over the weekend, despite low wind, amid a sharp fall in power demand compared to the weekdays.
• German power demand is anticipated to be at around 51.8GW on 1 August and will fall to around 50.8GW the next day before being between 40.2-43.3GW over 3-4 August (weekend)
• In France, wind forecasts point to output at 2.19GW, or an 11% load factor, on 1 August, with wind on 2 August at a 10% load factor– possibly placing France at a discount to Germany and adding some weight to domestic prices.
• French nuclear availability was stable at 77% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, unchanged from the previous day, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• But RTE said on Tuesday it will limit flows on the France-Switzerland border, following RTE’s recent announcement to curb exports on France’s eastern borders – this could increase power supply in region and weigh on costs.
• And planned maintenance at EdF’s 1.3GW Cattenom 4 nuclear reactor is scheduled to restart on 3 August 23:00 CET, from 4 August 23:00 CET previously scheduled, remit data showed.
• However, EdF may reduce production at the 2.62GW Golfech nuclear complex until 9 August, from 8 August previously scheduled, due to high temperatures on the Garonne river, remit data showed.