German-French Day-Ahead Premium Narrows on High Wind, Reduced French Nuclear

The German-French baseload day-ahead premium narrowed amid high solar and wind output in Germany, while France’s smaller renewable power plant fleet and slightly lower nuclear generation reduced power prices at a slower rate compared to Germany.

• The German Day-ahead settled at €81.72/MWh down from €107.23/MWh on 4 June.
• The French day-ahead cleared at €39.08/MWh for delivery on 5 June, down from €49.58/MWh in the previous session.
• This placed the German-French baseload premium at €42.64/MWh from €57.65/MWh in the previous session.
• German wind output is expected at 13.58GW, or a 21% load factor on Wednesday – weighing down power prices – but wind is then anticipated to fall sharply between 5.8-7.6GW, or 9-12% load factors over 6-7 June, according to Spot Renewables– possibly adding some support.
• German solar output on Wednesday is seen peaking at 31.97GW at 2pm, compared with a high of 28.9GW at 2pm on Tuesday: Bloomberg model
• French nuclear generation has fallen slightly on the day at around 38.7GW compared to 39.4GW on 3 June, according to Bloomberg. Its nuclear availability sits at 68% - unchanged on the day.
• French nuclear availability will likely increase on 6 June amid the return of the 1.33GW Cattenom 3 nuclear power plant- which had originally been scheduled to come back online on 5 June.
• The 1.33GW Paulel 2 is still expected to return on 10 June.
• Wind generation in France is expected at 2.6GW, or 13% load factor on 5 June before falling to a 10% load factor, or 1.9-2GW, over 6-7 June.
• Average temperatures across northwest Europe throughout the two-week forecast are expected to be slightly lower than the 30-year norm of about 16C.
• Regionally, maximum temperatures in Paris are anticipated between 19-20C over 5-13 June – keeping a lid on cooling demand.
• In contrast, maximum temperatures in Berlin are anticipated between 18-23C over the same period.