German HICP Adds to Evidence for EZ Upside Surprise Tomorrow

GERMANY FEB FLASH HICP +1.0% M/M (FCST +0.7%); JAN +0.5% M/M

GERMANY FEB FLASH HICP+9.3% Y/Y (FCST +9.0%); JAN +9.2% Y/Y

• German inflation surprised to the upside in February, accelerating by +1.0% m/m (vs +0.7% expected) and by +9.3% y/y (vs +9.0% expected) in the harmonised print.
• The 0.1pp uptick in the annualised print breaks a three-month streak in easing HICP, yet remains substantially lower than the October high of +11.6% y/y.
• Details on the national print (not HICP): fiscal support saw energy prices ease by 4.0pp to +19.1% y/y, and goods inflation eased by 0.3pp to +12.4% y/y in the Feb flash data.
• Meanwhile food inflation accelerated by 1.6pp to +21.8% y/y and services increased 0.2pp to +4.7% y/y.
• This implies an uptick in core CPI.
• This data adds to the evidence of an upside surprise on the eurozone print due tomorrow.
• Consensus is currently looking for a 0.3pp deceleration to +8.3% y/y, however today's German jump in HICP alongside 0.2pp upside surprises to headline HICP in both Spain and France make the anticipated fall unlikely.