German Power June Tracks Weekly Net Decline

German June power base load is edging higher today but is tracking a small weekly net decline mirroring movements in European natural gas and carbon markets, ahead of today’s expiry. French nuclear availability is sharply down on the day.

• France Base Power JUL 24 up 1.1% at 47.25 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 0.1% at 82 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 75.21 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas JUL 24 down 1.4% at 34.85 EUR/MWh
• European gas prices are softer Friday but holding up the overall recent strength this week on lower LNG imports and discussions within the EU to curtail gas and LNG supplies from Russia.
• EU ETS DEC 24 is edging slightly lower today amid losses in European gas benchmark prices, but remains within yesterday’s range. The next EUA Germany Primary Auction will clear today at 11:00 CET.
• In Germany, forecasts for wind output have been revised up with generation set to fall from mid next week. Combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 4.12GW-18.64GW during base load on 1-7 June. Solar PV has been revised up slightly to 14.1GW-25.87GW during peak load on 1-9 June with output to rise from the start of next week.
• German power demand is expected at a maximum of 59.42GW on Friday and to fall to a maximum of 51.78GW on Saturday according to Entso-E.
• French nuclear availability was down on the day to 40.6GW, or around 66% of capacity, down from 70% of capacity on Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a maximum of 49GW on Friday and of 45.37GW on Saturday according to Entso-E.
• The latest ECMWF weather forecast suggests temperatures in Paris to be below the seasonal norm until 4 June, after which temperatures turn slightly above normal until 8 June, before falling back lower. Maximum temperatures in Paris have been revised lower and are now forecast to reach 23C on 4 June.
• French wind output forecasts have revised down at the end of the forecast period to reach 1.6GW-7GW on 1-9 May during base load. Forecasts for solar PV output remained broadly unchanged at 5.5GW-7.7GW during peak load on 1-9 June according to spotrenewables.