German Week-Ahead Falls on Firm Renewables

The German power week-ahead baseload is trading lower towards its Friday expiry, shedding some gains made in the previous session, with downward pressure placed on the contract as the latest one-week forecast suggests strong renewable output towards the middle of the week, with price falls in European gas adding additional weight.

• Germany Base Pwr Week-Ahead down 4.1% at 72.3 EUR/MWh.
• TTF Gas JUL 24 down 1.2% at 35.28 EUR/MWh.
• EUA DEC 24 down 1% at 70.02 EUR/MT.
• TTF has eased back from the highest since June 3 at nearly €36.9 yesterday but is still set for a net gain on the week amid the risk of LNG competition from Asia and the outage at the Wheatstone LNG plant in Australia
• German wind forecasts point to wind at just 3-12% load factors, 2.2-8GW over 17-18 June, which could support delivery prices. But wind is expected to start picking from then, increasing between 7-34% load factors, or 4.6-21.7GW over 19-21 June – possibly weighing down prices.
• In contrast, solar output is expected between 13-14% load factors, or 11.7-12.6GW, over 17-18 June, - possibly adding some downward pressure- with solar slightly remaining firm between 19-21 June at between 9-14% load factors, or 7.5-11.8GW.
• Average temperatures in Berlin on 14 June are expected at around 15C - below the 30-year norm of about 17C, with temperatures picking up after, rising between 17-24C over 15-23 June.
• But Maximum temperatures are anticipated to reach as high as 30C on 18 June and increase again to around 33C on 21 June – which could lead to a rise in cooling demand and support prices.
• Domestic baseload generation is anticipated to drop over 17-20 June owing to maintenance at the 500MW Janschwalde Block C lignite coal plant.