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GERMANY: AfD Slumps In Polling Ahead Of Eastern Germany State Elections

GERMANY

The latest opinion polling from the state of Saxony ahead of its regional election on 1 September shows the upstart left-wing nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) catching up on the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD holds a narrow lead over the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has also lost support since the previous poll in January but has nevertheless seen its deficit behind the AfD fall to just 1%.

  • Infratest dimap, Fieldwork: 12-18 June -  AfD: 30% (-5), CDU: 29% (-1), BSW: 15% (+7), GREENS: 7% (=), SPD: 7% (=), LEFT: 3% (-1), Others: 9%, Changes to the last survey of January 25, 2024, 1,157 respondents
  • Three eastern German states (Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg) hold state elections in September. These will be closely watched for indications of the sustainability of support for the AfD, given that it is in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) in which the party records its strongest support. 
  • The BSW, formed by former far-left Die Linke co-leader Sahra Wagenknecht, is polling strongly across former east Germany. It recieved a notable boost in the European Parliament election, coming in fifth place nationwide winning six MEPs and overtaking the liberal FDP of Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and Die Linke. 
  • The BSW's mix of left-wing economic policies (significant state intervention, increase in social welfare benefits, etc.) combined with a more conservative stance on social issues (curtailing immigration, opposition to green policies) has garnered the party notable support ahead of the anti-capitalist, metropolitan Die Linke. 
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