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Germany August Edges Lower with Energy Complex

POWER

Germany August power is edging lower with declines in European emissions allowances and natural gas prices but remains within yesterday’s range.

    • Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 1.3% at 70.01 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 down 0.6% at 64.32 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.6% at 31.65 EUR/MWh
    • Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 down 0.9% at 107 USD/MT
  • TTF edges lower after a slight recovery yesterday as front month has bounced between €30.325/MWh and €33.285 in the last couple of weeks with muted demand and healthy storage set against supply risks.
  • EU ETS Dec 24 is edging lower but remains within yesterday’s range and near the lowest since 11 April, weighed on by declines in natural gas prices, while hot weather across the continent is capping losses.
  • Forecasts for wind output is forecast at 12.18GW during base load on Wednesday, up from 9.62GW forecasted for Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge higher to 12.45GW during base load, up from 11.85GW forecasted for Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German power demand is forecast to rise to a maximum of 63.91GW on Tuesday and of 63.37GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 73% as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF said on Monday planned outages due to corrosion at three of the following reactors may be extended by an average of 30 days (BG5, CHB2, DAM4, FLA1, PAL1, PAL3, PEN1, PEN2).
  • In France, wind output is forecast at 1.65GW for base-load hours on Wednesday, down from 4.97GW forecasted for Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase to 4.64GW on Wednesday, up from 4.05GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French power demand is forecast to rise up to 51.41GW on Tuesday and up to 52.21GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures above normal until 26 July, before dipping slightly below normal for two days, after which temperatures will rise back above normal. Max temperatures in the south, Marseille, are forecast to rise to around 35C on 31 July.
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