GERMANY: Brandenburg Election A Toss-Up As SPD Gains On AfD

The 22 Sep Brandenburg state election has turned into a toss-up, with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) trailing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) by just 1-3% according to the latest polling. The election comes swiftly after strong performances for the AfD in two other east German states (Saxony and Thuringia), and has garnered significant national and European attention. 

• Unlike Thuringia and Saxony, Brandenburg has long been a stronghold for the SPD. In the 1 Sep elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz could write off the poor SPD performance due to the historic strength of the far-left Die Linke and centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) respectively in those states. However, falling behind the AfD in Brandenburg could damage Scholz's standing.
• Reuters notes, "Though none will yet say it openly, some in Scholz's party believe he should follow his idol Joe Biden and step aside for a more charismatic champion like defence minister Boris Pistorius. But a win in Scholz's home state [...] may quell the murmurs against him."
• The SPD gains come amid a recorded decline in support for the CDU and Greens as moderate voters set aside party differences to stop the AfD topping the ballot. However, polls have also recorded a smaller spike in AfD support coinciding with a slump for the far-left nationalist Sara Wegenknecht Alliance (BSW). While nominally on different ends of the political spectrum, the AfD and BSW both advocate halting inward migration and ceasing military support to Ukraine. 

Chart 1. Brandenburg State Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average