GERMANY: CDU's Merz Calls For Immediate Confidence Vote In Scholz Minority Gov't

Leader of the main opposition conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz has called for an immediate confidence vote in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's gov't following the collapse of the tripartite 'traffic light' coalition on 6 Nov. After the removal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner from office, and the withdrawal of Lindner's pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) from the governing coalition, Scholz said that federal elections would be moved from September 2025 to March. However, Merz is demanding a confidence vote next week followed by an early election in January. 

• On 7 Nov, Merz said “It is important that we now very quickly put responsibility for the composition of the German Bundestag back into the hands of the voters. That’s why I’m going to ask the chancellor in a conversation this afternoon to clear the way for this.”
• Opinion polling shows the CDU and its partners, Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU), set to win a plurality of seats. Their most likely coalition partners would be Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD). However, based on current polls there is no guarantee these two would carry a majority. A 'Kenya coalition' (CDU, SPD, Green) would be possible but not ideal for Merz's party, risking leaning too far left.
• The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on course for second place, but Merz has ruled out working with the party. The FDP would be the CDU's ideal coalition partner, but at present it is unclear if they will cross the 5% nationwide vote threshold.

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average