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POWER: Germany DA Widens Discount to France, Trend May Continue for 8 Jan

POWER
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Day-ahead power prices in Germany and France rose due to lower wind generation and higher demand from cooler temperatures on the day. However, Germany maintained a discount to France, driven by stronger wind output, lower consumption, and a slight drop in French nuclear availability. This trend may continue for 8 January delivery, with similar conditions in German power demand and wind generation.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €58.29/MWh from €25.16/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €74.26/MWh from €35.44/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €15.97/MWh discount from a €10.28/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge lower to 40.22GW, or 62% load factor during base load on Tuesday, down from 42.83GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind is then expected to be at 28.14GW on 8 January or 44% load factor– which could raise prices from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to increase to 58.68GW on Tuesday, up from 57.07GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to decline to 4.2C on Tuesday, down from 10.1C on Monday and above the average of 3.5C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then remain firm on the day at 58.60GW on 8 January – likely to keep upward pressure on prices.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to drop sharply on the day to 9.56GW, or 48% load factor, during base load on Tuesday, down from 14.5GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then drop further the next day to be at 6.75GW of 34% load factor.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to increase to 64.91GW on Tuesday, up from 62.77GW forecasted for Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 5C on Tuesday, down from 9.3C on Monday and slightly above the average of 4.8C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 64.45GW on 8 January
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 84% of capacity as of Monday morning, down from 85% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.62GW Flamanville 3 outage is currently scheduled to return on 9 January.
  • And the unplanned outage at 1.5GW Civaux 1 is still scheduled to end on 8 January.
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Day-ahead power prices in Germany and France rose due to lower wind generation and higher demand from cooler temperatures on the day. However, Germany maintained a discount to France, driven by stronger wind output, lower consumption, and a slight drop in French nuclear availability. This trend may continue for 8 January delivery, with similar conditions in German power demand and wind generation.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €58.29/MWh from €25.16/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €74.26/MWh from €35.44/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €15.97/MWh discount from a €10.28/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge lower to 40.22GW, or 62% load factor during base load on Tuesday, down from 42.83GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind is then expected to be at 28.14GW on 8 January or 44% load factor– which could raise prices from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to increase to 58.68GW on Tuesday, up from 57.07GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to decline to 4.2C on Tuesday, down from 10.1C on Monday and above the average of 3.5C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then remain firm on the day at 58.60GW on 8 January – likely to keep upward pressure on prices.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to drop sharply on the day to 9.56GW, or 48% load factor, during base load on Tuesday, down from 14.5GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then drop further the next day to be at 6.75GW of 34% load factor.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to increase to 64.91GW on Tuesday, up from 62.77GW forecasted for Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 5C on Tuesday, down from 9.3C on Monday and slightly above the average of 4.8C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 64.45GW on 8 January
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 84% of capacity as of Monday morning, down from 85% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.62GW Flamanville 3 outage is currently scheduled to return on 9 January.
  • And the unplanned outage at 1.5GW Civaux 1 is still scheduled to end on 8 January.