Germany Sees More Negative Prices Than France for 5 July Delivery

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both increased on the day, with Germany recording several hours of negative power prices and France having none. Combined solar and wind output is expected to be firm over 5-6 July – which could weigh on power prices amid low weekend (Saturday) demand – but will decrease over Monday-Tuesday – possibly supporting power prices.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €36.99/MWh from €28.10/MWh on the previous day.
  
• The French day-ahead spot closed at €27.51/MWh from €10.53/MWh on the previous day.
• Negative power prices for delivery hours were more present in Germany than in France, with negative prices for delivery hours between 12-16 at €-0.03-0.78/MWh.
• French power demand is forecasted at an average of around 43.84GW on 5 July up from around an average of around 41.1GW as of 11:30 BST so far today, according to Bloomberg. Demand is forecast to drop over 5-6 July to between 37.38-39.48GW – which could weigh on prices.
• Combined French wind and solar output is expected at 10.7GW, or 27% load factor on 5 July, remaining firm at 20% load factor the next day, according to spot renewables– which could also place downward pressure on cost.
• France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 69% of capacity on Thursday – unchanged from the previous session. But generation is at around 33.26GW as of 11:30am BST compared to the 5-year average of 41.37GW.
• In contrast, combined German wind and solar output is expected at 32.4GW, or a 21% load factor on 5 July and remain at around this level on 6 July. But it will fall over the 8-9 July to load factors between 10-11% - likely supporting price increases from the weekend.
• German power demand is forecasted at 53.6GW on 5 July compared to 54GW anticipated on 4 July. It is anticipated to be between 42-45GW over the weekend before increasing to around 51GW on 8 July.