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GfK Consumer Confidence at Record Low as Recession Fears Loom

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY JULY GFK CONSUMER SENTIMENT -27.4; JUNE -26.2r

  • GfK's July projection for consumer confidence sees sentiment weakening a further 1.2 points. This is largely in line with the forecast and a fresh series low since commencement in 1991. Last Friday saw the GfK UK reading also slump to a historic low.
  • Economic and income expectations, as well as propensity to buy all fell further in June, with income expectations suffering the greatest loss at an almost 20-year low.
  • Escalations in the Ukraine war alongside persistent supply-chain issues and steep energy and food price inflation continue to drive sentiment down as consumers grapple with +7.9% y/y inflation in May. Wednesday will see the release of the June CPI print, anticipated to be unchanged. The ECB said its July meeting will almost certainly a 25bp lift-off in rates, and continued inflation pressures underscore a 50bp hike may follow in September as implied by President Lagarde at the last meeting.

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